Now that Iraqis have voted on three separate occasions this year, isn't it about time we accepted the fact that democracy and unity are taking hold in that country?No.
Even in the United States, democracy and unity took almost a century to become fully accepted, and then only after a bitter, bloody, vengeful, horrible civil war. A century after that war, the civil rights movement showed we were still fighting the demons that had pushed our nation to the brink of self-destruction.
So how can a few public demonstrations of electioneering, rife with ballot-box stuffing, phony registrations, and post-election charges and counter-charges (true Republican-style elections in action) possibly add up to democracy and unity?
The truth is that Iraq is still split along ethnic and religious lines. The three main factions, Sunni, Shi'a, and Kurd, are shouting and finger pointing rather than discussing and negotiating. Bands of militias on all sides are shooting and bombing each other (and our troops).
Another truth is that the only time the United States brought democracy to another country was after we completely defeated not only the military and political leaders, but also the people themselves. And it took two nuclear bombs to finish the task. If any responsible people are contemplating dropping nukes on Iraq, they're keeping quiet.
Historically, attempts to create democracy where none existed before are doomed to many, many failures before they finally succeed. The French revolution was, at the time, a dismal failure. Most of the revolutionary leaders were beheaded, and chaos reigned, until a strongman named Napoleon took over. The result was a mix of glorious, improbable military victories, combined with ignominious defeats in Egypt, Russia, and finally Belgium.
Speaking of Russia, take a look at their fifteen-year-old movement toward democracy. A former KGB chief is in charge, and he's busy fighting not only black marketeers in Moscow, but also separatists in Chechnya and elsewhere. And these problems are taking place in a country that, by all accounts, wholeheartedly embraced democracy.
Iraqis are not wholeheartedly embracing democracy. Far too many are afraid of the potential consequences. They are afraid that they and their friends and families will be relegated to second-class status in the new order. And many iraqis have reason to be afraid. Iraq has no history of the combination of majority rule and minority rights that is essential to any functioning democracy. They have no history of the system of checks and balances that supplies this essential combination.
They don't even have a working constitution.
Can democracy take hold in Iraq? Of course it can, eventually. But it won't happen next year, and it won't happen because some outside invader and conqueror forces it on them. It will only happen when the Iraqi people - all the Iraqi people - choose it for themselves.
Copyright 2005, Dan Jacoby
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