Mayor Michael Bloomberg just returned from California. While out there, he attended a fundraiser for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Could this be the start of something new in American politics?Mayor Bloomberg has been talked about recently as a possible candidate for President in 2008. He recently met with leaders of the Democratic Leadership Council, a conservative Democratic group, and is now schmoozing Schwarzenegger, a moderate Republican. Since the demise (for all practical purposes) of Ross Perot's "Reform Party", and with Americans saying "a plague on both your houses" to both Republicans and Democrats, the time may be ripe for another foray into third-party land.
And Democrat-turned-Republican Michael Bloomberg could be the ideal candidate.
At least, many people believe he would be the ideal candidate. After all, he turned New York City around in the wake of the destruction of the World Trade Center. He erased a six billion dollar deficit. He took over the largest school system in the country and made significant changes. He was willing to welcome "fellow" Republicans for their convention, even going so far as to have protesters arrested and held for several days in order not to disrupt the party. He has been just as willing to stand up to Republican leaders in Albany and Washington when funding for New York City was threatened.
Of course, Bloomberg has no foreign policy experience. But then, neither did George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, or Ronald Reagan before they moved into the Oval Office.
And Mayor Bloomberg has had to deal directly with the threat of terrorism, America's number one foreign policy issue. He has certainly dealt not only with the FBI, but also with various intelligence agencies.
Mostly, he has dealt with difficult situations with calm self-assurance that is almost unseen in today's politicians. Put another way, he looks presidential.
As far as campaigning goes, he won't have to raise money. He spent over $150 million on his two mayoral races. Even if a national campaign costs twice as much, it's little more than a drop in the bucket to the man whose personal worth is estimated at $5 billion. Bloomberg can then run on the same platform that was the foundation of his first mayoral run - nobody can buy him. In an age where lobbyists are the most potent forces in politics, primarily because they do so much fundraising, Michael Bloomberg seems immune to their "charms".
Finally, if he puts together a bi-partisan coalition along with Schwarzenegger, Joseph Lieberman, and other politicians who are less than completely identified with their official political party, it could be a potent force.
So what's the down side?
First, there is history. No third-party candidate has ever done more than throw the election. Nobody elected Mayor since the 1898 consolidation of New York City has ever been elected to anything else afterward.
There are also aspects of Mayor Bloomberg's record that are easily attacked. His record on education reform is spotty at best. Poverty in New York City has risen dramatically over the past few years. Crime, which was going down for almost a decade before he took office, has shown signs of turning up. And since his re-election, he has shown little interest in being involved in local issues, as his behavior during the recent blackout in Queens demonstrated.
Finally, there is the question of whether Michael Bloomberg wants to throw himself into the rough and tumble of a Presidential campaign. So far, he has never shown an interest in being a heavy hitter - or a punching bag. He is smart enough to know what running for President will involve; the question is whether he's willing to embark on that journey.
There is another possibility.
One name not mentioned in this essay (yet) is someone who is immensely popular, clearly loves the political heavyweight bouts, and has virtually no chance of getting his party's nomination. He is also the one most responsible for securing Bloomberg's victory in 2001. That person is former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.
Rudy Giuliani is, officially, a Republican, but he is as far outside the Republican mainstream as one could be. That is why he has no chance of getting nominated. When he goes to Iowa with his pro-choice, pro-gay marriage positions, Iowa Republicans will laugh him out of the state. Perhaps these positions won't hurt him too much among New Hampshire Republicans, but his pro-gun control position will. After finishing far down in the first caucus and the first primary, his fundraising will dry up, and that will be the end of the Giuliani campaign.
If he runs as a Republican, that is.
If he runs as an independent, he doesn't need to deal with primaries and caucuses, he can travel around the country throughout most of the next two years without ever having to debate anyone. And if he is bankrolled by Michael Bloomberg and endorsed by a significant bi-partisan coalition, he could make a serious run all the way to the election.
It will probably never happen. But this is the time in the election cycle when people get to speculate on crazy ideas, and this is no crazier than any other. And if it does happen, remember you saw it here first.
Copyright 2006, Dan Jacoby
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