With the mass media's attention focused on a probable Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives, and questions about control of the Senate, not many people are paying attention to races that show the true measure of Democratic resurgence.Currently, Republicans hold a 28-22 advantage in Governorships. According to the major handicappers, however, Democrats are poised to take at least six of those seats this year. New York and Ohio are considered safe pickups, and Democrats are given the edge in Massachusetts, Maryland, Arkansas and Colorado. Republican-held seats are also in jeopardy in Minnesota, Rhode Island and Nevada.
Why is this important?
Over the past two decades, the Supreme Court has consistently given more power to the states. Additionally, major social issue decisions, such as abortion and capital punishment, are decided at the state level. Spending on, and regulation of, Medicaid, education, transportation, and other core issues that affect our lives is decided in state houses - and the prime mover on all of these issues is the governor.
Four of our last five presidents are former governors. Governorships are the breeding ground for the next generation of Presidents - and for the first time in a generation, Democrats are going to have the clear advantage.
Governors' conferences are run by the majority party. The agenda for these conferences will now be set by Democrats.
In many states, the Attorney General is appointed by the Governor. Our laws, and how they should be applied to controversial issues, will be enforced mostly by Democrats.
The same way an incumbent President can make a difference in Congressional races, an incumbent Governor can make a big difference in races for state legislature. And state legislatures are the usual breeding ground for Congress. More Democratic Governors could translate into more strong Democratic candidates for Congress.
The odd thing about this trend is that Democrats appear to be taking back control of state governments without any specific reason. When Republicans took control, it was the result of a concerted national effort known as "unfunded mandates." As soon as Republicans took over after the 1980 election, they required states to spend billions of dollars on new programs without providing the money. Democrats at the state level were then blamed for raising taxes and cutting (other) services, and Republicans won the next few elections.
Today, we have no similar insidious plot. Democrats are just winning because people want to vote for them. Perhaps people are just tired of Republican rhetoric. Perhaps people are waking up to the widespread incompetence and lies that pervade Republican leadership. Or perhaps Howard Dean's "50-state strategy" is working.
Whatever the cause, or causes, the future looks very bright for Democrats.
Copyright 2006, Dan Jacoby
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