All the experts know, and have known for years, that a long, drawn-out primary contest is bad for the party. So unless one Democrat knocks the others out soon, President Bush is all but assured of reelection.Except...
The turnout in Iowa was unprecedented. And the turnout in New Hampshire is expected to be similarly large. If the Democrats choose their nominee soon, the number of people who get involved this year, and vote this fall, won't be significantly larger than usual. On the other hand, if three or four Democrats are still around on "Super Tuesday", March 2nd, voters in many states will become involved. As a result, the eventual nominee will have the opportunity to tap into that anti-Bush sentiment. And a large turnout in November will almost certainly mean a Democratic victory.
The victory could also go farther than the White House. There are several close Senate races, enough to make the difference. The prospect of a large turnout this fall could also bring many House races into play, energizing the Democratic party and its various election committees. Money could flow into Democratic party coffers. It's possible for a sufficient turnout to give the Democrats a complete sweep.
It's possible, but how?
The Democratic candidates for President, all ten of them including the ones who have dropped out, must be at the convention. Then they must appear together on the stage, holding hands and smiling. This sends four messages to America.
The first message is that the Democratic party is diverse. Among this group are Catholics, Jews, and a variety of Protestant Christians. There are two African-Americans. There is a woman. There are liberals, moderates and conservatives. There are four current Senators and one former Senator, two current members of the House of Representatives, one former four-star general and a Vietnam War hero, a former ambassador, a former governor, and an active civil-rights advocate. It takes an amazingly big tent to assemble this variety under one roof.
The second message is that the Democratic party is remarkably united. Will Rogers was fond of saying "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat." Seeing all ten candidates together in support of the nominee, and of the party, would be a unique demonstration of unity.
The third message is that the Democratic party is no longer willing to accept defeat. It is a statement that allowing the Republican party to run the federal government is bad for America.
The fourth message is that there are so many reasons to oppose President Bush and the Republican party platform. While one Democratic standard-bearer might be wrong, ten such diverse, experienced, intelligent people, each with his or her own viewpoint, all opposed to the monolithic, extreme right-wing views of the Bush administration and the Republican party, must be worth listening to.
Finally, this show of unity in diversity will keep the people who got involved in the primaries for the first time interested and involved in the general election. Greater interest will mean greater turnout. And greater turnout at election time favors the Democrats.
At least, that's the conventional wisdom.
Copyright 2004, Dan Jacoby
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