The political media is abuzz with the trial balloon, floated by the Kerry campaign, that Senator Kerry might not officially accept the Democratic nomination until five weeks after the convention. This possibility is raised because of a combination of silly election finance laws and a strategic decision made by the Republicans a couple of years ago.Under federal election finance laws, once you accept a major party nomination, you can get $75 million from the federal government to spend on your campaign. The catch is that you're not allowed to spend anything more than that. You can spend time raising money, but since you can't spend it, why bother?
When the Republicans scheduled their convention, they realized that by holding their convention at the end of August, they could compress the time frame in which that money had to last. Under the current system, George W. Bush wouldn't accept his party's nomination until five weeks after John Kerry accepts his. He would then be able to spend $1.2 million a day, while John Kerry, nominated five weeks earlier, would have less than two-thirds of that amount to spend per day.
By delaying his acceptance, Senator Kerry can continue to spend all the money he raises for five weeks, and then level the playing field after September 1. Until he accepts the nomination, he can continue to spend all the money he raises.
The Republicans are doing their best to belittle this tactic, because it ruins their strategy of outspending John Kerry down the stretch when every dollar counts. They're practically apoplectic that John Kerry has figured out their plans. This is nothing new, of course; Republicans hate it when the truth comes out. If Kerry delayed accepting the nomination, he would upset all the Bush team's plans.
But he might not do that.
The key is that spending limits only go into effect if you accept federal funds. Remember just a few months ago, when Senator Kerry and Governor Dean opted out of accepting federal matching funds? They reasoned that they could raise more money than the spending limits, and by refusing federal funds they could spend all the money they raised. The Bush team did the same thing. By raising almost five times as much as the spending limits allow, they also refuses federal funds, and so the limits didn't apply to them either.
Right now, John Kerry is raising a million dollars a day, twice as much as George W. Bush. If he can keep this up, or even increase that level, then he can refuse the $75 million from the federal government and spend as much as he wants. He can then have the best of all possible worlds. He can accept the nomination at the convention and keep up with Bush's spending.
There is nothing stopping George W. Bush from refusing federal funds and trying to raise money himself. The problem for Bush is that Kerry is currently raising twice as much as he is. Chances are that Bush can't raise enough money to compete. So come crunch time, George W. Bush could be using federal tax money, while John Kerry would be using money donated by hundreds of thousands of individual Americans.
Or, by refusing federal funds, Bush and his team can risk being outspent by an even wider margin. Either way, they'll be outspent and look bad too.
Meanwhile, John Kerry can accept the Democratic nomination at the convention.
Copyright 2004, Dan Jacoby
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