How to Win Wars and Influence Countries

by Dan Jacoby

Hitler had no friends.

He had two "allies", Japan and Italy. Japan was an ally of convenience; neither country was trying to conquer any land the other country wanted. Italy was an alliance between two dictators; the Italian people were never fond of Germany. Oh yes, there was Austria, which came over to the German side after being conquered. But seriously, they were never a real factor. And Spain, while not fighting against Germany, was busy dealing with its own internal politics.

Opposing Hitler were Great Britain, the Soviet Union, Canada and the United States, along with Poland, France, and almost everyone else on the European mainland. Not to mention northern Africa.

Guess who won.

Even in the Gulf "War", the smashing victory started with a true coalition of willing partners. Almost one-third of all the troops assigned were from countries other than the United States. Included on this list was Iraq's Arab neighbor, Saudi Arabia, which provided the staging area for most of our half-million troops. Other Muslim countries on our side included Afghanistan, Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Syria, Turkey and The United Arab Emirates. It's difficult for anyone looking at this list to say that the U.S. was just fighting Islam.

Today's list of Arab "coalition" countries is practically empty.

In the modern world, as in the time of Sun Tzu 2,500 years ago, the trick to winning wars is to win before the war starts. Build a list of true partners, with a legitimate interest in the dispute, who will be a full-fledged coalition force. Agree on a purpose, a specific and attainable goal for victory, and an exit strategy. Make sure the people of the coalition countries understand exactly why the war is being waged - which means don't lie about it. Then go fight.

In the case of the current situation in Iraq, George W. Bush failed on all counts.

There are, for all practical purposes, no Arab countries in the coalition. Aside from Great Britain, there isn't a single country providing significant troops. Any country that might have a legitimate interest in the outcome of this conflict has stayed out. As a result, people around the world hate the U.S.

There was no specific purpose and no specific goal. Yes, George W. Bush wanted to remove Saddam Hussein from power, but beyond that he had no idea what he wanted to accomplish. As a result, American troops are bogged down in a quagmire, with no light at the end of the tunnel, and no exit in sight.

We still don't know why George W. Bush invaded Iraq. At first, he claimed that Saddam Hussein had something to do with the 9/11 attacks, but that was a lie. Then he claimed that Hussein had stockpiled chemical and biological weapons, but that wasn't true either. He claimed that Hussein had tried to get uranium for nuclear weapons, but he knew that charge was bogus.

Then, a year after the invasion, Bush sent his National Security Advisor around to claim that Hussein was the greatest source of instability in the region. Had nobody in the Bush administration ever heard of a guy named Osama bin Laden? Hussein was contained; bin Laden was the source of instability. And yet George W. Bush gave up trying to capture bin Laden in order to go after Hussein.

Well, at least he got the "go fight" part right.

No, he didn't.

In the Gulf War, the coalition forces numbered about 750,000. In the Iraqi invasion, it's one-fifth of that number. One major reason Americans are being killed at the rate of about four per day is that we don't have nearly the overwhelming force needed to accomplish the mission.

Meanwhile, not only are Americans dying at an alarming rate, but Iraqis are being killed even faster. George W. Bush has killed more Iraqis in a year and a half than Saddam Hussein killed in the twelve years before that.

If the President can put together a true coalition to stabilize Iraq and set up an internal government that is truly representative of the Iraqi people instead of a mere puppet regime, things can get better. Unfortunately, even if George W. Bush tried to accomplish this (and he won't), he'd fail, because nobody would listen to him.

The only way to "win" this war is to throw out George W. Bush.

By electing a new President, in effect overthrowing the current regime here at home, we can send a message to the world that America does not stand behind the lies of George W. Bush. The new President can get other countries involved, and can put together the true coalition, including Arab states, that can end the war in Iraq. It won't happen overnight, but it's the only chance we have.

 

Copyright 2004, Dan Jacoby

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