Diplomacy, and foreign relations in general, is often a matter of "sending signals". But what if the signals being sent are so self-contradictory that nobody - even Americans - knows what we're saying?Such is the case right now. George W. Bush has barely gotten over jetlag from his goodwill tour of Europe, supposedly trying to mend fences he has destroyed over the last four years. No sooner does he get a good night's sleep than he nominates John Bolton to be our ambassador to the United Nations.
John Bolton's hatred for diplomacy is well documented, and goes far beyond despising the U.N. His entire career has been devoted to creating a world order where we give the orders and the rest of the world is our slave. He seems to believe that the rest of the world will just roll over and play dead while the U.S. runs the entire show.
In your dreams, John.
Just when we thought our standing around the world couldn't drop any farther, George W. Bush has managed to find the one thing he can do (short of invading another country for no reason) to make things worse.
The truth is, there are no mixed signals, not for seasoned diplomats. George W. Bush's trip was for the media, who gobbled it up. His nomination of John Bolton was the only real signal, and every professional, from Moscow to Montevideo, from Berlin to Beijing, knows it. The signal is simple: We stand alone - don't get in our way, don't try to stop us, and don't even think you have a voice in world affairs. We call the shots, and if you block us, you'll be shot.
America's standing in the 70s was the result of a combination of our involvement in Vietnam and a couple of decades of gunboat diplomacy. It was very low. America's standing over the next generation will be the result of our invasion of Iraq and cruise missile diplomacy. As a result, it will soon become extremely dangerous to be an American anywhere in the world.
George W. Bush's unmixed signals of disdain for the rest of the world will isolate America diplomatically. How long will it be before other countries start isolating us economically? How long will it take before OPEC decides to embargo the U.S. as they did in the 70s, sending our economy into a tailspin and bringing inflation to new heights? If you think $50/barrel for oil is a lot, wait until it doubles, and gasoline costs $3.50/gallon - or more.
Don't worry; you won't have to wait long. The Arab members of OPEC don't like us very much, and with the bulk of our armed forces tied down in Iraq, we really don't have the resources to stop them.
Copyright 2005, Dan Jacoby
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