Eleven months ago, I wrote that the United States should get out of Iraq (#66 "Cut and Run). Back then, an American withdrawal would have been a good idea. Almost nobody over there believed that the U.S. presence was a good thing, and many other countries would have been willing to help create a United Nations force to replace us.Since then, George W. Bush and his conservative coterie continue to refuse to allow a true international presence in Iraq. Their "go it alone" policy has proven to be a disaster. Oil pipelines are still subject to constant sabotage, sewage is building up in the streets, the death toll, both American and Iraqi, is mounting at an ever-increasing rate, and there is no end in sight.
This morning, there was an announcement of a new Iraqi constitution. But this document has no more support from the Iraqi people than George W. Bush has from the American people - and Bush's poll numbers are at an all-time low. Furthermore, even if this document becomes the law of Iraq, it means a continual civil war, since Sunnis will never accept being economically marginalized. To make matters worse (from an American standpoint, at least), this document strips women of their rights.
So, whether this constitution is passed or not, it's bad for America.
Meanwhile, two things should be kept in mind. First, unless we pull out before the end of next year, George W. Bush and his lies will have killed more Americans than Osama bin Laden. Second, the only country in the Middle East that is moving toward greater freedom is also the country that kicked us out a quarter of a century ago.
What does this mean for the near future in Iraq? It means that what I wrote eleven months ago hasn't changed. We need to turn over all of the operations in Iraq currently run by the United States to a truly international body and get out. This action will provide the only hope for a stable, peaceful, free Iraq.
But how do we do that? Certainly, George W. Bush doesn't want to admit that his entire foreign policy, though based completely on lies and incompetence, is a failure. And he won't just roll over and play dead.
Republican support for George W. Bush's policies is slipping along with the poll numbers. If Democrats were to make a strong push to gather the minimal Republican support they need, resolutions could be passed to force George W. Bush's hand. Under the War Powers Act, Congress must reauthorize our presence in Iraq at least twice a year. All Congress has to do is refuse to reauthorize, and George W. Bush has no choice but to bring our troops home. Having no alternative, the President would then have to turn to the United Nations, NATO, or some combination of international organizations to take up the slack.
But it won't happen.
Democrats are far less interested in doing what is right than in winning elections. By allowing the situation in Iraq to fester and deteriorate, Democrats have a much better chance of winning majorities in one or both houses of Congress.
So the probability is that the situation in Iraq will continue getting worse. Republicans certainly won't make the necessary changes, because that would be an admission of failure. Democrats won't make the changes either, because they would lose a major election-year issue. It's politics as usual.
Meanwhile, Americans are dying in Iraq.
Copyright 2005, Dan Jacoby
For a PDF version of this document, click here.
To contact Dan Jacoby, click here.
Return to the Main Menu